Young voters are turning on Donald Trump in dramatic fashion — and they could deliver a sharp rebuke to the president in the midterm elections just 10 days away, according to the new Harvard Youth Poll.
Democrats lead Republicans 63% to 26% among likely voters ages 18 to 29, with 10% undecided, the 53rd edition of the poll found. Among all registered young voters, Democrats lead 45% to 24%.
"Young voters are poised to deliver a sharp rebuke to President Trump, while the broader generation is sending a message to everyone in power," said John Della Volpe, director of polling at the Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School.
A vote against Trump
Opposition to the president is driving the surge. Sixty-three percent of likely young voters described their congressional vote as a vote against Trump and his policies, compared with just 14% who called it a vote of support.
Seventy-seven percent of young Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of the economy — the issue dominating the campaign as voters complain about high grocery and petrol prices.
The Harvard Public Opinion Project surveyed 2,024 Americans ages 18 to 29 between September 30 and October 7. The poll has tracked young Americans' political attitudes since 2000.
Record pessimism — and a turnout warning
The poll also found deep pessimism about the country's direction. Just 9% of young Americans said the nation is headed in the right direction, matching the Harvard Youth Poll's record low from spring 2024. Nearly two-thirds (62%) said the country is on the wrong track, and 69% said they feel more fearful than hopeful about America's future.
Economic anxiety runs through the results. Nearly half (49%) said their personal finances have worsened since the current administration took office, while only 11% said they have improved. For the first time in the poll's history, more young Americans expect to be worse off financially than their parents (27%) than better off (25%).
Inflation and the cost of living were cited as serious threats to future financial stability by 79% of respondents, while nearly two-thirds (64%) see AI replacing jobs as a serious threat.
But there is a warning for Democrats too: overall enthusiasm is down. Only 33% of young Americans said they will definitely vote, compared with 40% ahead of both the 2018 and 2022 midterms. Half of young Democrats said they will definitely vote, compared with 34% of young Republicans — a 16-point gap, up from five points in 2022 and the widest of the last three midterm cycles.
A reversal from 2024
The numbers mark a striking reversal from the 2024 presidential election, when young voters — especially young men — helped power Trump's return to the White House. A CBS News/Edison Research exit poll found men ages 18 to 29 broke for Trump 49% to 47%, and Tufts polling found 56% of young men voted for Trump.
Now, with control of Congress on the line on November 3, the generation that helped elect Trump is telling pollsters it plans to vote against him — if it shows up at all.
Why it matters
With Trump's approval rating at a term-low 31% in the latest Reuters/Ipsos survey and Republicans defending narrow majorities in both chambers, the Harvard poll suggests the youth vote could be the deciding factor in the midterms. The question is whether the anger it measures turns into ballots — or stays home.
Reporting based on the Harvard Institute of Politics (53rd Harvard Youth Poll), The Harvard Crimson, Newsmax and the Daily Caller.