Israel's military fears that the United States could launch a new round of strikes on Iran as early as next month — and then end the fighting quickly with a deal that leaves Israel's own objectives unmet, according to reporting published by Haaretz on Friday, October 30, 2026.
The concern, raised in Israeli military discussions, comes down to a gap between what the two leaders say they want from another round of fighting. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has presented toppling the Iranian regime and destroying its nuclear program as objectives of a renewed campaign. President Donald Trump, by contrast, is seeking an agreement on terms favorable to Washington — primarily restrictions on Iran's nuclear program and guarantees of freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
Israeli defense officials do not view Iran's restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, on their own, as a direct strategic threat that would justify going to war, Haaretz reported. And American officials have talked about a campaign lasting only three to four days before returning to the negotiating table — far shorter, in Israel's view, than what its goals would require.
The risk of being left alone mid-war
Another round of fighting that ends without a decisive outcome could leave Israel in a dangerous position, military officials warned: forced to strike Iran repeatedly on its own to prevent the rebuilding of its nuclear and missile programs, if the United States subsequently declines to participate. That would mean a prolonged campaign carrying heavy costs and growing risks, with Israel alone.
IDF sources also warned that a war that does not appear necessary and fails to produce the promised results could seriously damage public trust in the military, which is still trying to rebuild its standing. Recent assessments presented in IDF discussions indicate that the chances of renewed fighting between the United States and Iran are increasing, amid deep disagreements in negotiations over a potential agreement.
At the same time, an Israeli security assessment reported by Walla's military correspondent holds that Washington is unlikely to order an attack before the US midterm elections on November 3, unless it identifies preparations for a surprise attack. Nothing has been finalized, and no strike decision has been announced.
The buildup both sides can see
The warnings coincide with visible military preparations. According to Israeli broadcaster Kan, about 10 US military transport aircraft flew from Fort Bliss, Texas, to the Ovda and Nevatim air bases in southern Israel on Thursday. The Wall Street Journal reported that Admiral Brad Cooper, the head of US Central Command, briefed Donald Trump on military options against Iran on Thursday, alongside Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine.
US officials have also privately warned several Gulf countries to prepare for possible renewed strikes on Iran after the November 3 midterms, along with the possibility of Iranian retaliation against energy facilities and other critical infrastructure, diplomats briefed on the discussions told the Associated Press. A third US aircraft carrier, the USS Theodore Roosevelt, is reportedly moving toward the region, where it would join the USS George H.W. Bush and the USS George Washington.
Diplomacy is still running in parallel
Even as the military track advances, mediators are working to prevent another round. Qatari mediators returned to Tehran on Friday as part of efforts to reach a deal between the US and Iran, an official briefed on the talks told Reuters. Qatar presented a draft plan to Iran on Sunday that sets out a seven-day timeline for addressing both sides' concerns, with daily confidence-building steps and several countries serving as guarantors; the timeline could begin early next week.
The gaps remain wide. Washington wants nuclear issues included from the start of negotiations. Tehran demands that the US first end its port blockade and lift sanctions on Iranian oil exports. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Wednesday that Tehran "continues to give diplomacy a chance to succeed" and remains in close contact with intermediaries over its own seven-day proposal. Vice President JD Vance has also sent a letter to Iran's security chief Mohsen Rezaei proposing direct talks.
Donald Trump himself has sent mixed signals. In a radio interview on Thursday he said the war "is going to get wrapped up soon" but added: "We need a guarantee there will never be a nuclear weapon." For Israel's military, that is precisely the worry: a short war, a quick deal — and goals left unmet.
Sources: Haaretz, October 30, 2026; Reuters, October 30, 2026; Associated Press via diplomats briefed on the discussions, October 29-30, 2026; The Wall Street Journal, October 29, 2026; Kan News, October 29, 2026; Gulf News, October 30, 2026.