Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's re-election is more than a Brazilian story. It is a defeat for Donald Trump's project in Latin America — and the White House, which spent the weekend watching the count, has still not said a word about the result.
Lula, 80, won a historic fourth term on Sunday, defeating Flávio Bolsonaro with 51.79 percent of the vote in a runoff that Brazil's electoral court has now formally proclaimed. It is the first time any Brazilian president has overturned a loss in the first round since democracy returned in 1988.
The Trump administration had been hoping for the opposite outcome. A Bolsonaro victory would have given Washington an ideologically friendly government in the largest economy in South America — and, according to USA Today, Bolsonaro was expected to join the Shield of the Americas, the Trump-formed security coalition of more than a dozen countries in Latin America, and expand intelligence and counter-narcotics cooperation with the United States.
Instead, Lula will maintain Brazil's role as a bulwark against the Trump administration's efforts to acquire further influence in the region. Had Bolsonaro won, the current White House would have been able to count on ideologically friendly governments in Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Chile and Peru — all five of South America's largest economies.
Silence from the White House
Trump phoned Lula before the vote and wished him luck. But his State Department declined, in writing, to say it would respect the result — and as of Sunday evening, neither the White House nor the State Department had commented on Lula's victory at all.
That silence is striking given how much Trump invested in the race. Last year he hit Brazilian products with 50 percent tariffs, among the highest on any U.S. imports, accusing Brazil of promoting a "witch-hunt" against former President Jair Bolsonaro, who was later convicted for attempting to overthrow democracy. Trump later withdrew most of the levies, including on Brazilian beef and coffee, at least in part to help calm rising U.S. grocery prices.
In May, the State Department labeled Brazil's two largest organized crime groups as foreign terrorist organizations — a move that came two days after Flávio Bolsonaro requested the designation during his Oval Office visit. Lula denounced the decision, which came three weeks after his own visit to Washington, accusing the United States of treating Brazil like a "tinpot republic."
A region Washington wants to control
Trump has authorized deadly airstrikes against alleged drug trafficking vessels in the Caribbean Sea and approved a military operation in Venezuela to capture the country's leader, Nicolás Maduro, and bring him to the United States to face drug trafficking charges.
Lula's victory will come as a disappointment to Trump, according to Murillo, director of the Institute for Latin American Studies at Columbia, cited by USA Today. But she said the White House was going to do what it wanted in the region, regardless.
"The United States is the dominant leader in the hemisphere, as you have seen with Venezuela," she said. "I don't think Lula was happy with that outcome, but the U.S. is not asking for permission in any case."
Alongside Mexico, the result means Brazil remains a left-of-centre government sceptical of Trump's policies in the region — the one large South American economy that did not fall in line.
What Lula's win changes
For Brazil, the immediate question is whether the Trump administration accepts the result it declined to promise to respect. For the region, the question is whether the Shield of the Americas can hold together without its biggest member — and whether Lula, who has already faced down Trump's tariffs once, becomes the loudest voice against Washington's military turn in the hemisphere.
Flávio Bolsonaro has so far refused to concede and has floated an annulment challenge. But Brazil's electoral court has proclaimed the result, world leaders have rushed to congratulate Lula, and the numbers are final: 51.79 percent, a fourth term, and a direct rebuke to the idea that Latin America would simply follow Washington's lead.
Fuentes: USA Today, The Associated Press, Narativ, BBC.