With less than a week until Election Day, Democrats remain strong favorites to retake the House of Representatives, and their Senate odds are holding steady, according to the latest update of Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin forecast, published Thursday, October 29, 2026.
The forecast's message comes with a warning that should temper any celebration: the Democratic leads in the key Senate battlegrounds are all just a normal-sized polling error away from flipping. In Texas, the Democratic candidate leads by 2.5 points; in Ohio, by 3.0; in Alaska, by 3.6; and in Maine, by 2.4. A single polling miss in any of those states could change the story of election night.
What the polls and the markets say
The forecast update lines up with the broader polling picture. Averages compiled by RealClearPolitics put Democrats ahead in the race for the Senate, projecting 46 Democratic seats against 44 Republican seats, with 10 races still too close to call. In the House, where 218 seats are needed for a majority, the same averages project 227 Democratic seats against 182 Republican seats, with 26 seats highly competitive.
The Cook Political Report reaches a similar conclusion: Democrats are favored in 220 House seats, Republicans in 198, with 17 toss-ups, and its final projection range for Democrats runs from 227 to 237 seats. Decision Desk HQ has put the Democrats' odds of winning the House majority at 80 percent.
The prediction markets are even more confident about the House. As of Wednesday morning, October 28, Polymarket gave Democrats about a 92 percent chance of winning the House and a 67 percent chance of taking the Senate, projecting roughly 236 Democratic House seats and 52 Democratic Senate seats. Kalshi pointed in the same direction, at about 91 percent for the House and 64 percent for the Senate. Those odds are not polls or forecasts: they reflect the prices traders are willing to pay, and they can move quickly on new polling or campaign news.
The starting point: a narrow Republican edge in both chambers
Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats against 45 Democrats, with two independents who generally vote with the Democrats. In the House, Republicans control 218 seats, Democrats hold 214, one seat belongs to an independent, and two seats are vacant. Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to reclaim the House, and a net gain of four to win the Senate, where Vice President JD Vance would break a 50-50 tie in the Republicans' favor.
All 435 House seats are on the ballot on Tuesday, November 3, along with 35 of the 100 Senate seats, governors' races in 36 states, and 145 statewide ballot measures in 39 states, including proposals on voter citizenship requirements and voter identification rules.
Early voting: millions of ballots already cast
Early voting is already reshaping the race. More than 32 million ballots have been cast nationwide, according to early-vote figures circulating on October 28, which put Democrats at 44.9 percent of the early vote against 30.9 percent for Republicans — a 14-point Democratic edge in ballots already banked. Those figures come from an early-vote tracker shared on social media and have not been independently verified as a final turnout count; what they do show is the scale of voting already underway before Election Day.
The forecast's bottom line is therefore twofold: Democrats are favorites, but favorites lose. Their House advantage looks wide; their Senate path runs through four battlegrounds where the lead is smaller than the margin of error. With six days to go, the election is still close enough for a polling error — or a late surge in turnout — to decide control of Congress.
Sources: Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver), 2026 Midterm Election Forecast update, October 29, 2026; RealClearPolitics polling averages via Anadolu Agency, October 27, 2026; Cook Political Report via Chosun Biz, October 28, 2026; Polymarket and Kalshi odds via NorthJersey.com, October 28, 2026; early-vote figures via The Source, October 29, 2026.