With less than two weeks to go before the November 3 midterm elections, Americans are nearly as gloomy about the economy as they were when the nation was emerging from the pandemic, and President Donald Trump's economic approval rating has fallen to an all-time low, according to the final CNBC All-America Economic Survey before the vote.
The survey also found that voters now rank government corruption as their top concern — ahead of even grocery and gas prices — after a months-long Democratic messaging effort linking economic dissatisfaction to alleged corruption in the Trump administration. Early voting has been underway for weeks, and turnout could exceed 100 million if it mirrors the 2022 midterms.
A referendum on the cost of living
The economy hangs over every race. A Reuters/Ipsos poll in late August found that 47 percent of registered voters considered the cost of living the single most important factor in their midterm vote, and that 71 percent of Americans disapproved of Trump's handling of the issue, against 22 percent who approved. Gasoline, groceries, housing and healthcare costs are weighing on household budgets, and higher energy prices — pushed up by the war with Iran — feed directly into transport and consumer prices, making affordability a direct liability for the party that controls the White House and Congress.
The map: everything is in play
Republicans hold a narrow 218-214 majority in the House of Representatives, alongside two vacancies and an independent who caucuses with them; Democrats need a net gain of just four seats to take the chamber. In the Senate, Republicans lead 53-47, so Democrats also need four seats there, with contests in Maine, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa and Georgia among those expected to be decisive. The most expensive races include Senate battles in Texas, Ohio and Michigan, and campaign advertising has set a record: $3.8 billion spent on ads aired through October 12, according to AdImpact. Billionaire Elon Musk has spent approximately $366 million supporting Republicans, finance records show.
Why it matters, and what happens next
The outcome will decide the balance of power in Washington for the final two years of Trump's term. A Democratic victory in either chamber would complicate his legislative agenda and open the door to intensified congressional scrutiny of his administration; a Republican hold would vindicate his strategy of campaigning through economic discontent. Either way, the verdict will be read as the country's judgment on the cost of living — and both parties will carry that lesson into the 2028 presidential race.
*Reporting based on the CNBC All-America Economic Survey, Reuters/Ipsos polling and AdImpact data.*