The nonpartisan forecaster Cook Political Report moved 12 more House races toward Democrats in its final update before the midterm elections on October 30, projecting that Democrats could flip between 12 and 25 House seats and finish with between 227 and 240 seats in the next Congress.
Cook now rates 222 districts as favoring Democrats, above the 218 needed for a House majority, with another 18 contests classified as toss-ups. If Democrats won all of those favored seats plus all 18 toss-ups, they would reach 240 seats, their largest majority since 2009.
The races that moved
Three seats previously rated "lean Republican" moved to "toss-up": Pennsylvania's 1st District, held by Republican Brian Fitzpatrick; Colorado's 5th District, held by Republican Jeff Crank; and South Carolina's 1st District, an open coastal seat outside Charleston.
Two races moved from "toss-up" to "lean Democrat": Ohio's 9th District, held by Democrat Marcy Kaptur, and Pennsylvania's 8th District, held by Republican Rob Bresnahan, where polling showed Bresnahan trailing his Democratic opponent.
Three seats moved from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican", including Indiana's 5th District, held by Republican Victoria Spartz, a district President Donald Trump carried by 17 points in 2024, and Florida seats held by Republicans. North Carolina's 5th and 9th Districts, New Jersey's 2nd District and Washington's 5th District moved from "solid Republican" to "likely Republican".
Why Cook moved the map
Cook House editor Erin Covey pointed to polling and early-voting numbers as drivers of the changes, and noted Republican concern about turnout in places like North Carolina and Pennsylvania, where Democrats are poised to win statewide races by comfortable margins. Early voting had already passed 48 million ballots when the update was published.
The update followed an October 23 round that moved 19 more House races toward Democrats. Decision Desk HQ, which partners with The Hill, put the Democratic chances of winning the House at about 80 percent after the October 30 update.
Ratings and projections are not election results. The outcome on Tuesday, November 3, when all House seats and more than a third of the Senate are on the ballot, will depend on turnout and on the individual district contests, including the 18 toss-ups.
Fuentes: USA Today, 1 de noviembre de 2026; DNYUZ, 31 de octubre de 2026; QNC News, 31 de octubre de 2026.