WASHINGTON.- The final forecasts published on the eve of the November 3 midterm elections point to a Democratic House majority that forecasters call near certain and a Senate that remains a genuine coin flip, even as President Donald Trump closes his campaign on Monday night with a speech at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool in Washington, according to final polls, forecasts and prediction markets reported on November 2, 2026.
The numbers behind the House call are wide: Democrats lead the national generic ballot by about 8 points, 51.4 percent to 43.2 percent in the RealClearPolling average and 52 percent to 44 percent among likely voters in the final PBS News/NPR/Marist poll, and prediction markets gave Democrats more than a 90 percent chance of winning the House as of November 1, 92 percent on Kalshi and 94 percent on Polymarket. Republicans hold the House 218 to 214, so Democrats need a net gain of only about three seats, and forecaster Decision Desk HQ projected a comfortable 241-194 Democratic House margin in its last pre-election projection.
The Senate is closer and less settled: Democrats need a net gain of four seats from the Republican 53-seat majority, because a 50-50 tie would leave Republicans in control with Vice President JD Vance casting the deciding vote, and markets gave Democrats a 69 percent chance on Kalshi and 72 percent on Polymarket of winning the Senate. Decision Desk HQ projected the Senate flipping 52-48 in favor of Democrats, while a Fox News projection suggested Republicans could hold the chamber if they beat their polls by two or three points, a reminder that pollsters have underestimated Republicans before.
Donald Trump spent the final weekend in the defensive posture the forecasts describe: he campaigned in Iowa and Kansas, states he has won handily in the past, telling supporters on Sunday, "We're going to win," after more than two dozen rallies in 19 states since October 1, while Democrats closed with final rallies by Senate candidates James Talarico in Texas and Adam Hamilton in Kansas. The White House rejected predictions of Republican losses, while forecasters cautioned that the first polls close at 6 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday and that races in California, Maine and Alaska may take days to call, with a record 54 million early votes already cast.
Read more on The Wire Post: Democrats Lead in All Seven Most Competitive Senate Races in Final New York Times/Siena Poll on Eve of Midterms, Donald Trump Delivers Final Midterm Pitch as More Than 54 Million Americans Vote Early in Record Surge and Donald Trump Faces Grim Final Midterm Map as Cook Says Democrats Could Flip 25 House Seats.
Sources: Agence France-Presse via Times of Israel and Hürriyet Daily News, PBS News/NPR/Marist, RealClearPolling, Decision Desk HQ, Kalshi, Polymarket, November 2, 2026.