WASHINGTON.- Democrats lead in all seven Senate seats viewed as the most competitive in the final New York Times/Siena poll released on Sunday evening, on the eve of the November 3 midterm elections, although five of those seven leads remain within the margin of error, according to the poll reported by Agence France-Presse and The Source on November 2, 2026.
The Senate math is unforgiving for Democrats: they need to flip a net four Republican-held seats to win control of the chamber, according to NPR's final ratings roundup cited on election eve, and the Cook Political Report rates Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas as toss-ups. The map widened over the year because polling, advertising and candidate travel now point to competitive races in states Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024, including Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and Texas.
The closing rallies captured that spread: Democratic Senate candidates James Talarico in Texas and Adam Hamilton in Kansas headlined final get-out-the-vote events on Monday, while Donald Trump chose a closing speech at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool in Washington, where he told supporters on Sunday, "We're going to win." In Michigan, the campaign produced a startling split: Democratic congresswoman Haley Stevens endorsed Republican candidate Mike Rogers against progressive candidate Abdul El-Sayed in her state's key Senate race, while Republicans have branded El-Sayed, who is Muslim, as a terrorist.
The headwinds for the White House are visible in the national numbers: an NBC News poll released on Sunday showed 60 percent disapprove of Donald Trump's performance, particularly over high prices exacerbated by his eight-month war against Iran, and a PollCubby average put his approval at 36.4 percent against 60.3 percent disapproval, with 68 percent of registered voters in the latest Ipsos/Reuters poll saying the country is on the wrong track. Polls also show Democrats near certain to take the House majority, but Democrats themselves remain wary of predictions of victory after a decade in the Trump era.
The first big signal on Tuesday night comes at 7 p.m. Eastern from Georgia and South Carolina, with Black turnout in South Carolina flagged as the factor that could make that race competitive, and Alaska closing at 8 p.m. local time, midnight Eastern for most of the state. With a record 54 million early votes already cast, Tuesday's results will decide whether the Senate joins the House as a check on Donald Trump for his final two years in office.
Read more on The Wire Post: Donald Trump Delivers Final Midterm Pitch as More Than 54 Million Americans Vote Early in Record Surge, Donald Trump Promises Farmers More Than $15 Billion in Aid Days Before the Midterms as Diesel Hits $6.32 a Gallon and Donald Trump Administration Takes California Ballot Fight to the Supreme Court on the Eve of the Midterms as Justice Department Deploys 1,000 Election Monitors.
Sources: Agence France-Presse via Philstar and Free Malaysia Today, The Source, NewsCubby/NPR, NBC News, New York Times/Siena, November 2, 2026.