WASHINGTON.- Americans are voting on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, in midterm elections that will decide control of Congress for the final two years of President Donald Trump's second term, and Democrats enter Election Day with a clear national polling lead of about nine points on the generic congressional ballot, according to the final surveys. The RealClearPolling average put Democrats at 52.0 percent against 43.1 percent for Republicans, a lead of 8.9 points, while the final Reuters/Ipsos poll gave Democrats 53 percent to 44 percent and CNN's Poll of Polls put the Democratic advantage at nine points. The vote covers all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 35 Senate seats and 36 governorships, with Republicans currently holding a narrow 218-214 lead in the House and a 53-47 majority in the Senate.
Forecasting models agree on the direction but differ on the margin: Decision Desk HQ gave Democrats an 84 percent chance of winning the House, with 241 seats projected, and a 64 percent chance in the Senate, with 52 seats, while other models put the Democratic House chance at 92 to 95 percent and the Senate chance at 76 percent. The Cook Political Report projected Democratic gains of 12 to 22 House seats and two to six Senate seats. Prediction markets on Tuesday priced Democratic control even higher, at about 92 to 93 percent for the House and 68 percent for the Senate, but market prices are traders' wagers, not votes cast, and a forecast probability is not a result.
Trump approval at 32 percent and a record early vote
The final Reuters/Ipsos survey put Donald Trump's approval at 32 percent, near a record low, and found Democrats leading Republicans 43 percent to 32 percent on handling living costs, with Democratic voters reporting far greater enthusiasm: 49 percent said they were very enthusiastic about voting, against 33 percent of Republicans. More than 58 million people had already voted early, above the 46 million early votes cast in the entire 2022 midterm election, and total spending was estimated at 11.9 billion dollars, which would make this the costliest midterm contest in United States history. Polls are snapshots, not results: the first polls close at 6 p.m. Eastern in parts of Indiana and Kentucky, with major waves through the evening, and tight races may remain undecided overnight or for days, particularly where mail ballots are tallied slowly.
Read more on The Wire Post: Polls Open Across America as Donald Trump Faces the 2026 Midterm Verdict and 58 Million Americans Already Voted Before Election Day as Donald Trump Faces the 2026 Midterm Verdict.
Fuentes: Reuters/Ipsos, CNN Poll of Polls, RealClearPolling, Decision Desk HQ y NBC News, 2 y 3 de noviembre de 2026.