DETROIT.- With two days to go before the midterm elections, Michigan's Senate race has narrowed to a fight over two blocs that could decide it: Black voters in Detroit and Wayne County, and Jewish voters in the Detroit suburbs. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers are both courting them hard in the final stretch, and the outcome may hinge less on persuasion than on who actually shows up on Tuesday, November 3.
El-Sayed, the Democratic nominee, needs a significant share of both groups to hold a seat Democrats cannot afford to lose if they hope to take control of the Senate, where Republicans now hold a 53-47 majority and 35 seats are on the ballot. He leads Rogers by 3.5 points in the RealClearPolling average, but his path runs through metro Detroit, where Black voters are decisive for any statewide Democratic win.
A unity event that fell apart
The closing days exposed the fragility of El-Sayed's coalition. He and his former primary rival, Representative Haley Stevens, had planned a get-out-the-vote appearance together on Sunday at a Detroit church, joined by Representative Jim Clyburn of South Carolina, one of the country's most prominent Black political leaders. It would have been their first public appearance together since a Democratic unity breakfast on August 6, two days after El-Sayed's narrow primary victory.
But after a tense public exchange on October 30, El-Sayed asked Stevens not to attend any of his upcoming campaign events, according to USA Today. Stevens, who lost the August primary to El-Sayed and then endorsed Rogers on Saturday, had been scheduled to appear alongside him; the joint rally collapsed before it happened. Clyburn, meanwhile, traveled to Michigan this weekend to rally Democrats behind El-Sayed, in what Semafor described as a closing push aimed at Black voters amid concern that Rogers could erode the Democratic edge among them.
The stakes in Detroit are concrete. El-Sayed lost Wayne County in the primary, and he underperformed among Black voters, winning just over a third of the vote in Detroit itself on August 4. Black voters make up about 11 to 12 percent of Michigan's electorate, and analysts say his campaign must consolidate support in Detroit, Pontiac and Flint to win. "It all depends on Black voter turnout, which is typically Democratic. Will they show up?" Mario Morrow, a longtime Detroit-area political consultant, told USA Today. "But just as big a question is what are the Jewish voters going to do?"
Rogers courts the same voters
Rogers, for his part, has made an unusually direct play for voters who usually vote Democratic. During the final debate, he said his campaign is "doing well with African Americans in the city of Detroit, in Pontiac, in Flint" and "exceptionally well with Jewish Democrats who are literally afraid." He has launched a "Democrats for Rogers" coalition and opened an office in a predominantly Black neighborhood of Detroit, courting voters who backed Stevens in the primary.
El-Sayed's relationship with both groups is complicated. Jewish voters remain concerned over his stance on Israel, while Black voters were split during his contentious primary with Stevens, who has described herself as a Zionist and a "proud pro-Israel Democrat." President Donald Trump has tried to exploit the divide: at an October 29 rally in South Carolina, he told Black and Jewish voters in Michigan that voting for El-Sayed would be "crazy," and he has called El-Sayed a "jihadist" who wants to impose sharia law in Michigan, a claim El-Sayed's campaign rejects.
El-Sayed has answered with a policy pitch rather than identity appeals. His campaign points to his record as Detroit and Wayne County health director, his THRIVE agenda for Black communities, unveiled in September to address historic disinvestment, and a string of Detroit and Flint-area campaign stops with surrogates including former President Barack Obama, former Vice President Kamala Harris, Senator Raphael Warnock and Representative Ayanna Pressley. A Washington Post/Schar School survey last month found that among likely Black voters, 83 percent want Democrats to control the Senate, but only 67 percent back El-Sayed — the gap his final weekend is designed to close.
With all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats at stake on Tuesday, Michigan is one of a short list of races that will decide the Senate. Both campaigns agree on one thing: in Detroit, turnout is the whole ballgame.
Sources: USA Today, November 1, 2026; Newslooks, October 30, 2026; Political Wire/Semafor, October 29, 2026; NewsNation, November 1, 2026.