WASHINGTON.- British journalist Piers Morgan warned on November 2, 2026, that Tuesday's midterm elections could be an "existential night" for pollsters if Republicans outperform the polls, reacting to the final New York Times/Siena surveys that put Democratic candidates ahead in all seven of the most competitive Senate races and to CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten's forecast giving Democrats a 92% chance of winning the House and a 71% chance of taking the Senate.
"Incredible night for Dems if this is what happens on Tuesday… possibly existential night for pollsters if it doesn't," Morgan wrote on X, quoted on November 2. His warning cuts against the headline forecasts: Enten stressed that a 71% Senate chance for Democrats still leaves Republicans a 29% chance of holding the chamber, adding, "That ain't nothing." The tension is the story of election eve — the polls point to a Democratic wave, but the history of Republican polling upsets is exactly why Morgan framed the night as a test for the pollsters themselves, not only for the parties.
The final New York Times/Siena polls showed Democratic leads in Texas, Maine, Ohio, Kansas, Alaska, Iowa and Michigan, where Abdul El-Sayed led Republican Mike Rogers by 11 points, according to the reports published on November 2. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico led Republican Ken Paxton 50% to 43%, and in Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton led Republican Senator Roger Marshall 49% to 44%. Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats for a 51-seat majority, while in the House they need a net gain of three seats for 218. A record of more than 54 million Americans had already voted early before Election Day.
Morgan's caution also echoes a warning already heard inside the Republican camp in this campaign: Senator Ted Cruz had warned Republicans that they could lose Texas and face a midterm "bloodbath" as Democrats outpaced the GOP in early voting. On the other side, the final polls put President Donald Trump's approval far below the level any president wants on the eve of a midterm, with an NBC News poll showing 60% disapproval. If the polls are right, Democrats win at least partial control of Congress and can constrain Trump for the first time in two years; if they are wrong, Morgan's line will be the one quoted on Wednesday morning.
Read more on The Wire Post: Democrats Lead in All Seven Most Competitive Senate Races in Final New York Times/Siena Poll on Eve of Midterms, Donald Trump Faces Final Forecasts Pointing to a Democratic House and a Coin-Flip Senate on the Eve of the Midterms and Donald Trump Awaits Election Night: Polls Close at 6 p.m. Eastern and the Senate, House and 36 Governorships Will Be Decided Hour by Hour.
Sources: TV Insider, CNN via Harry Enten, New York Times/Siena, November 2, 2026.