WASHINGTON.- Donald Trump heads into the final hours before the November 3 midterm elections with the last forecasts pointing to a Democratic wave: Democrats lead the national generic ballot by about eight points, prediction markets give them more than a 90% chance of winning the House of Representatives, and the Senate — long seen as out of reach — is now rated as a genuine toss-up, with all 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and 36 governorships on the ballot on Tuesday.
The final RealClearPolling average puts Democrats ahead 51.4% to 43.2% on the generic ballot, while the final PBS News/NPR/Marist poll has them up 52% to 44% among likely voters, with Donald Trump at 40% approval and 59% disapproval. An NBC News poll released on Sunday found 60% of voters disapproving of Donald Trump, 52% preferring a Democratic-controlled Congress against 45% who want Republicans to keep it, and a record of more than 54 million early votes already cast — well above the 45.9 million early votes of 2022.
The House looks gone for Republicans; the Senate is the fight
The Cook Political Report, in its final projection on the eve of Election Day, said Democrats are likely to flip between 12 and 25 House seats — the majority mark is 218, and Republicans now hold it by the bare minimum, 218 to 214, with one independent and two vacancies — which would give Democrats their largest congressional majority since 2009. Forecasters moved 12 additional House seats toward Democrats in the final weeks as Donald Trump's approval kept falling.
Prediction markets agree with the polls on the House and are far more bullish on the Senate than they were weeks ago: as of November 1, Kalshi gave Democrats a 92% chance of winning the House and a 69% chance of winning the Senate, while Polymarket put those chances at 94% and 72%. Democrats need a net gain of only three seats in the House but four in the Senate, where Republicans hold a 53-47 majority and only a third of the 100 seats are contested.
Why Democrats are surging: prices, and a warning from pollsters
The final New York Times/Siena University battleground surveys, released on Sunday evening, found Democrats leading in all seven of the most competitive Senate seats — five of them still within the margin of error — and holding a nine-point advantage over Republicans on the cost of living, leading on that issue in every battleground state surveyed. Only 38% of likely voters across those seven states approved of Donald Trump's job performance, a weak figure in states he won by double-digit margins in 2024.
The same surveys, and the final polls overall, come with a warning the forecasters themselves repeat: pollsters have underestimated Republicans before, and five of the seven key Senate races remain within the margin of error. The first polls close at 6 p.m. Eastern time on Tuesday, and the last close in Alaska at 1 a.m. Eastern — a long election night in which the House is expected to be called first and the Senate could come down to a handful of states.
Read more on The Wire Post: Donald Trump Closes Midterm Campaign at Lincoln Memorial as Polls Point to Democratic House Win and a Senate Toss-Up, James Talarico Leads in Texas as Democrats Surge in Five Republican Senate States on a Record 54 Million Early Votes and Benjamin Netanyahu Presses Donald Trump to Resume Iran War After Midterms as Israel Goes on Highest Alert.
Sources: Firstpost, Khaleej Times, Times Now News and Tribune India (ANI), November 2, 2026.