WASHINGTON.- Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton by 50 percent to 43 percent in Texas, according to the final New York Times/Siena polls before Election Day, part of a Democratic surge in five Republican-held Senate states as a record of more than 54 million Americans had already voted early ahead of Tuesday, November 3, midterm elections.
The Times/Siena surveys, conducted between October 23 and November 1 among more than 6,000 likely voters across seven battleground states, put Democrats ahead in Texas, Kansas, Ohio and Alaska, with Iowa effectively tied and Democrats holding a double-digit advantage in Michigan, the only surveyed state where they are defending a Senate seat. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control of the Senate, and a net gain of three seats in the House to reach a 218-seat majority.
Adam Hamilton and Sherrod Brown lead in Kansas and Ohio
In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton leads Republican Senator Roger Marshall by 49 percent to 44 percent, while in Ohio former Senator Sherrod Brown leads incumbent Republican Jon Husted by 49 percent to 44 percent, the Times/Siena polls found. In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola holds a narrower 48 percent to 46 percent lead over Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, and in Iowa Democrat Josh Turek polls at 48 percent against Republican Ashley Hinson at 47 percent, a statistical tie.
The surveys also found President Donald Trump's approval at just 38 percent across the seven states, with Democrats holding a nine-point advantage over Republicans on the cost of living in all seven. Nationally, the Call the Map polling average on Sunday showed Democrats ahead by 7.8 percentage points among likely voters, and a Big Data Poll conducted on October 30 put Democratic support at 52.3 percent against 40 percent for Republicans, with Trump's disapproval at 58.6 percent. An NBC News poll released on Sunday put his disapproval at 60 percent.
A record early vote that does not decide the outcome by itself
By Sunday afternoon, more than 53 million early votes had been cast nationally, including about 30 million in-person votes, according to the University of Florida Election Lab, already surpassing the previous midterm record of 45.9 million set in 2022. Later counts put the total above 54 million. Texas led the states with more than 7.6 million early ballots, followed by California with more than 5.5 million and Florida with more than 5.1 million, while Georgia passed 2.8 million, above its 2022 mark.
Analysts cautioned that early-vote totals do not predict the final result on their own: an analysis of 27 states that disclose party registration showed Democratic registered voters accounting for 43 to 44 percent of early voting, ahead of Republicans at 31 to 32 percent, but whether Republican voters rally on Election Day itself remains the biggest variable. About 11 billion dollars has been spent on midterm advertising, much of it from individual mega-donors.
Read more on The Wire Post: Donald Trump Closes Midterm Campaign at Lincoln Memorial as Polls Point to Democratic House Win and a Senate Toss-Up, More than 53 million Americans have already voted early and NBC News poll puts Donald Trump's disapproval at 60 percent.
Sources: Dawn, November 2, 2026; The Tribune (ANI), November 2, 2026; News18, November 2, 2026; Malay Mail (AFP), November 2, 2026.