WASHINGTON.- James Talarico, Chris Hamilton and Graham Platner lead their Republican rivals in the final New York Times/Siena University polls before the November 3 midterm elections, with Democrats ahead in five Republican-held Senate battleground states and within the margin of error in two more, putting control of the Senate — long treated as out of reach — within their grasp on the eve of Election Day.
The surveys, published on Sunday, November 2, show Democrats leading in Texas, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Alaska, while Iowa is effectively tied and Michigan leans Democratic. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take the Senate, where Republicans now hold a 53-47 majority, and only three seats in the House to win that chamber, with all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats on the ballot on Tuesday.
Texas, Kansas, Maine and Ohio: the state-by-state numbers
In Texas, Democratic state Representative James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton by 50% to 43%, in a state where Democrats have not won a Senate race since 1988. In Kansas, Democrat Chris Hamilton leads Republican Senator Roger Marshall by 49% to 44%; Democrats have not won a Senate election in Kansas since 1932. In Maine, Democrat Graham Platner leads Republican Senator Susan Collins by 51% to 45%, and in Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown leads Republican Senator Jon Husted by 49% to 44%.
In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola holds a narrow 48% to 46% lead over Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, while in Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek polls at 48% against 47% for Republican Ashley Hinson — a statistical tie. In Michigan, where Democrats already hold the seat, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers by 53% to 42%. Across the seven surveyed states, only 38% of likely voters approved of Donald Trump's job performance, even though he won five of those states by double-digit margins in the 2024 presidential election.
Cost of living, record early voting and a historic low for Donald Trump
The cost of living is the engine of the Democratic surge: Democrats hold a nine-point advantage over Republicans on the issue across the battleground states, and they lead on it in all seven. Nationally, Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by 7.8 points in the Call the Map average on Sunday, and a Big Data Poll conducted on October 30 put them at 52.3% against 40% for Republicans among likely voters.
Turnout is already historic: more than 54 million Americans had cast early ballots before Election Day, according to the University of Florida Election Lab, smashing the previous midterm record of 45.9 million set in 2022. Texas, California and Florida led the early vote, with 7.6 million, 5.5 million and 5.1 million ballots respectively. Meanwhile, Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to 36% in the New York Times poll tracker — the lowest for any president heading into a midterm election in the last 80 years — with 61% disapproving.
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Sources: The New York Times/Siena University polls via The Tribune (ANI) and USA Today live updates, Dawn, November 2, 2026.